Comparison of the US and Chinese economy – Modern Diplomacy

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No doubt that the US is the largest economy, but, it is facing severe challenges and may not sustain this status forever. It is a natural cycle, nations work hard and rose to the peak and rule the other nations, sustain status quo for various duration, and then by one or another reason starts declining and pave ways for other nation to climb peak and become number one. It is an historic fact, which cannot be denied. One cannot win against the nature.
The US has been ruling the world after the World War II, and enjoyed supremacy, especially, after the disintegration of former USSR in 1991, the US enjoyed hegemony as a single superpower in the unipolar world for few decades.
However, the geopolitics has been changed, the US may not have realized, or not willing to accept it. But, the ground realities are evident and the US economy is falling sharply and losing its status of unique superpower and supremacy.
Below is the record of bankruptcy in US:-
1. Victoria’s Secret declared bankruptcy.
2. Zara closed 1,200 stores.
3. La Chapelle withdrew 4391 stores.
4. Chanel is discontinued.
5. Hermes is discontinued.
6. Patek Philippe discontinued production.
7. Rolex discontinued production.
8. The world’s luxury industry has crumbled.
9. Nike has a total of $23 billion US dollars preparing for the second stage of layoffs.
10. Gold’s gym filed for bankruptcy
11. The founder of Airbnb said that because of pandemic, 12 years of efforts were destroyed in 6 weeks.
12. Even Starbucks also announced to permanently close their 400 stores.
13. WeWork isn’t in a great spot either
14. Nissan Motor Co. may close down in USA
15. Biggest Car Rental Company (Hertz) filed for bankruptcy – they also own Thrifty and Dollar
16. The biggest Trucking company (Comcar) filed for bankruptcy – they have 4000 trucks
17. Oldest retail company (JC Penny) filed for bankruptcy – to be acquired by Amazon for pennies
18. The biggest investor in the world (Warren Buffet) lost $50B in the last 2 months
19. The biggest investment company in the world (BlackRock) is signaling disaster in the world economy – they manage over $7 Trillion
20. Biggest mall in America (Mall of America) stopped paying mortgage payments
21. Most reputable airline in the world (Emirates) laying off 30% of its employees
22. US Treasury printing trillions to try to keep the economy on life support
23. Estimated no. of retail stores closing in 2020 – 12,000 to 15,000. The following are big retailers that have announced closing: – J. Crew,  – Gap,  – Victoria’s Secret,  – Bath & Body Works,  – Forever 21, – Sears,  – Walgreens,  – GameStop,  – Pier 1 Imports,  – Nordstrom,  – Papyrus, – Chico’s,  – Destination Maternity,  – Modell’s,  – A.C. Moore, – Macy’s,  – Bose,  – Art Van Furniture,  – Olympia Sports,  – K Mart, – Specialty Cafe & Bakery, and many more.
Unemployment claims reached an all-time high of 38+ million – unemployment is over 25% (out of 160 million of workforce, close to 40 million are jobless). With no income, consumer demand is falling drastically and the economy will go into a free fall.
Of course COVID-19 has adversely impacted on the global economy including the US, but, more importantly. The US military operations, misadventures, overseas military bases, unnecessary confrontations, and war craze has costed heavily and harmed its economy severely. Only the miracles can save the US, otherwise its downfall is under process and declining accelerated.
On the other hand, China is making positive developments, despite of COVID-19, and slightly deterioration, yet the economic indicators are encouraging. China’s foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.0549 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of August, down 49.2 billion U.S. dollars from July, data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed Wednesday.
“Cross-border capital flows were rational and orderly, and supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market remained generally balanced,” said Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the administration.
Wang attributed the decrease in foreign exchange reserves to factors including exchange rate conversion and asset price changes. On the global financial market, the U.S. dollar index rises and the price of global financial assets declines under the influence of monetary policy expectations and the macroeconomic data of major countries.
Deeming the external situation complex and grim at present, Wang said the global financial market registers strong fluctuations amid increasing pressure on the global economy.
China has kept its economy operating in an appropriate range by effectively coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, while implementing a raft of policies on stabilizing the economy. This helps keep its forex reserves generally stable, Wang added. Its domestic market is huge and can compensate any loss from international market. The pace of development within China is huge, which keep the economy moving on. More companies are appearing the top 500 fortunes, against the US companies are decreasing gradually.
China is emerging as a role model for many developing nations and is being followed by few countries. Chinese model is based on win-win cooperation, no aggression, no war, no occupation, no colonialization, no interference into other’s domestic affairs. It is a perfect peaceful development model and a precedence for the civilized world.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative: What it is, and why it’s important for the world
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, exports of grain from Ukraine, as well as food and fertilizers from Russia, have been significantly hit. The disruption in supplies pushed soaring prices even higher and contributed to a global food crisis. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, was set up to reintroduce vital food and fertilizer exports from Ukraine to the rest of the world. Here are some key points to understand.
Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, normally supplies around 45 million tonnes of grain to the global market every year but, following Russia’s invasion of the country, in late February 2022, mountains of grains built up in silos, with ships unable to secure safe passage to and from Ukrainian ports, and land routes unable to compensate.
This contributed to a jump in the price of staple foods around the world. Combined with increases in the cost of energy, developing countries were pushed to the brink of debt default and increasing numbers of people found themselves on the brink of famine.
On 22 July, the UN, the Russian Federation, Türkiye and Ukraine agreed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, at a signing ceremony in the Turkish capital, Istanbul.
The deal allowed exports from Ukraine of grain, other foodstuffs, and fertilizer, including ammonia, to resume through a safe maritime humanitarian corridor from three key Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi, to the rest of the world.
To implement the deal, a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) was established in Istanbul, comprising senior representatives from the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United Nations.
According to procedures issued by the JCC, vessels wishing to participate in the Initiative will undergo inspection off Istanbul to ensure they are empty of cargo, then sail through the maritime humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian ports to load. The corridor is established by the JCC and monitored 24/7 to ensure the safe passage of vessels. Vessels on the return journey will also be inspected at the inspection area off Istanbul.
Shipments monitored by the Initiative began leaving from 1st August. By the end of the month, over 100 ships, laden with more than one million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs, had left Ukraine. By mid-September the JCC reported that some three million tonnes had left Ukraine, signalling positive progress. It is hoped that, eventually, up to five million tonnes will be exported monthly.
According to UN figures, 51 per cent of the cargo so far (as of mid-September) has been corn, 25 per cent wheat, 11 per cent sunflower products, six per cent rapeseed, five per cent barley, one per cent soya beans, and one per cent other foodstuffs.
A 25 per cent of the cargo has gone to low and lower-middle income countries. Egypt (8 per cent), India and Iran (4 per cent each), Bangladesh, Kenya and Sudan (2 per cent each), Lebanon, Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti (1 per cent each), and Tunisia (less than one per cent)
This includes UN-chartered vessels delivering humanitarian food assistance – World Food Programme (WFP) purchased wheat – to the Horn of Africa and Yemen. Two UN-chartered ships have already left Ukraine, while another two are expected soon. WFP had so far purchased 120,000 metric tonnes of wheat to support humanitarian relief in the Horn of Africa, Yemen and Afghanistan.
The first WFP-chartered vessel docked in Djibouti on 30 August to support the drought response in the Horn of Africa. A second UN-chartered vessel, loaded with 37,500 metric tons of wheat, sailed on 30 August and docked in Türkiye on 3 September, where the wheat will be milled to flour.
This flour will then be loaded onto a different ship that will head to Yemen to support the World Food Programme’s humanitarian response there. The third and fourth WFP-chartered vessels will also supply wheat to relief operations.
Some 25 per cent of grain has gone to upper-middle income countries – including Türkiye, China and Bulgaria; and 50 per cent to high-income countries like Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Republic of Korea, Romania, Germany, France, Greece, Ireland, and Israel.
The UN points out that all of the grain coming out of the Ukrainian ports thanks to the Initiative benefits people in need, as it helps to calm markets, and limit food price inflation.
All ship movements can be found on the Black Sea Grain Initiative website, which also contains useful facts and figures.
There are strong signs that the Initiative is succeeding in one of its key aims, getting food prices down.
At a press briefing in mid-September, Rebeca Grynspan, the Secretary-General of the UN trade agency, known as UNCTAD, and Amir Abdulla, the UN Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative welcomed the fact prices have come down five months in a row: the Food Price Index has decreased nearly 14 per cent from its peak in March of this year.
Mr. Abdulla explained that falling prices meant that those who had been hoarding grain, in the hope of selling at a greater profit, were now selling, which meant that there is now more food supply in the markets, leading to further price drops. Ms. Grynspan, who is also coordinator of the UN global Task Team set up to help support countries deal with the triple economic shocks worsened by the effects of the war in Ukraine, pointed out that this is making a huge difference in a global cost of living crisis.  
Globally, a record 345 million people in more than 80 countries are currently facing acute food insecurity, while up to 50 million people in 45 countries are at risk of being pushed into famine without humanitarian support.
In August, WFP Executive Director David Beasley declared getting the Black Sea Ports open to be “the single most important thing we can do right now to help the world’s hungry”. He warned that, whilst this would not, on its own, stop world hunger, bringing Ukrainian grain back on global markets would improve the chance of preventing the global food crisis from spiralling even further
The UN is acutely aware that keeping shipments sailing smoothly out of Ukrainian ports will require the continued collaboration of Ukraine and Russia. Mr. Abdulla has praised the “collaborative spirit” between the parties to the Initiative. He also noted the special role that Türkiye and the UN are playing in keeping the process moving.
However, with no clear end in sight to the war, the future is uncertain.
The current Initiative may extend beyond its initial 120 days after the signing date of 22 July, if parties so choose. Thoughts at the JCC team in Istanbul are already turning to the extension of the deal. Mr. Abdulla remains positive, expressing his hope that “with the UN’s mediation efforts, it won’t really be a matter for discussion”.
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In the contemporary times, a diverse section of people quitting their jobs to find their true potential via entrepreneurship. It is a new form of employment where people no longer depend on the traditional means of employment but rather create their own streams of generating capital. Generally, an entrepreneur is an innovator who pitches an out-of-the-box solution to a complex societal problem, combines it with his skill set and brings solution-oriented business models to the market. The true spirit of Entrepreneurship thus lies in what is the organized combination of capital, labor, ideas and technology, fueled by engine of its growth which is a dedicated leadership and management.
Countries today rely heavily on creative minds capable of taking action by inventing novel approaches to solve societal concerns. Start-up enterprises, in particular, are multiplying in order to address key issues in their communities such as unemployment, migration, and political instability. In doing so, these start-ups also serve as a catalytic agent and contribute to the economic development and industrialization of the country. However, as the world becomes more interconnected in the wake of globalization, the global issues are adopting a more complex outlook. In this rundown, it is necessary for the world leaders to tackle these challenges with more apt solutions and look beyond their borders, and this is exactly where entrepreneurship plays a paramount role – as seen lately within the mini-laterals.
In recent past, there has been an evident rise in mini-laterals/QUADS. The fashion of these mini-laterals began to appear with the increasing success of the Indo-pacific QUAD which shifted the power paradigm from the Atlantic to the East. In parallel, another significant Middle Eastern Quad also took shape, known as the I2U2. The first summit of I2U2 grouping—comprising of India, Israel (I2) and US, UAE (U2)—took place virtually on Thursday, 14 July 2022, during US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel. The joint statement released after the summit stated:
“This unique grouping of countries aims to harness the vibrancy of our societies and entrepreneurial spirit to tackle some of the greatest challenges confronting our world, with a particular focus on joint investments and new initiatives in water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security.”

The heads of government of India, Israel (I2) and US, UAE (U2) during their virtual meeting pledged to tackle the challenges confronting today’s world with the combined spirits of entrepreneurship. It is noteworthy that the spirits of entrepreneurship are the USP—Unique Selling Product—of this grouping. Against the backdrop of war between Russia and Ukraine, there has been disruption in world food prices and supply chains, as both export quarter of the world’s wheat. Thus, with the vision to tackle food shortages in South Asia and Middle East, the UAE during the summit has pledged to develop a series of food parks worth $2Billion in India.  The project intends to use green technologies to conserve fresh water, retain renewable energy sources, and reduce food waste. Being an agrarian economy, constituting a total of 42% employment, India will make available its land and farmers for the sound execution of the project. Concurrently, the private sectors in the US and Israel will provide technology related services to the initiative.
It is evident that the cross-regional cooperation between this mini-lateral is by and large facilitated by entrepreneurship. For instance, Israel owns 214 AgriTech startups which are going to be the leading  tech service providers to the ‘Food Park’ Initiative launching in India. On the other hand, India has the third largest start-up ecosystem in the world and has been able to create 40,000 employment opportunities over the year. The United States in parallel is home to the well-known Silicon Valley – world’s largest bastion of tech-oriented startups and lastly, UAE too is picking up pace to tackle the challenges of the fourth Industrial Revolution via the application of robust technology. Thus, with economic cooperation at the heart of this QUAD, the idea of building partnerships and tackling issues via tech startups is a win-win situation because startups derive innovation and economic growth through their unique business models.
The basis of this cross-regional collaboration was laid down five years before this mini-lateral officially met in July, 2022 as a Middle Eastern Quad. It was during Narendra Modi’s 4-day visit to Israel during 2017 that, the Indiaspora made a high-level delegation appearance with its members from the US and India. The delegation’s visit was aimed at holding trilateral meetings in the realm of innovation ecosystem; mainly the entrepreneurship and venture capital. It was during this meeting that the idea of building a hi-tech triangle was proposed, encompassing the entrepreneurial potential of Tel Aviv, Bengaluru and Silicon Valley. However, what preceded the success of this trilateral alliance was the gathering among the entrepreneurs, government officials and investors of the former at NASSCOM’s tech-triangle summit.
Consequently, it was this former trilateral alliance that gave birth to the now established Quadrilateral I2U2 but, what further nurtured the viability here was the inclusion of UAE in the grouping. Nevertheless, the UAE has already been in close alliance with the Israeli entrepreneurial industry through initiatives like Synaptech Capital and UAE-Israel innovation office. Consequently, this fusion of Israeli technology with the Emeriti’s remarkable business ecosystem provides an opportunity for an accelerated regional economic development. 
Resultantly, the alliances formed on the basis of entrepreneurship vis a vis innovative spirits have proven to be contributing well to the economic advancement and automation of many countries. Entrepreneurship over the years has seen a rapid boom even amidst Covid-19. However, the significant element in this rise could be the cross-regional cooperation among countries that could further augment not only country-relations but also boost the global GDP. Nevertheless, it is important for the alliances built on the basis of promoting innovation to remain firm on their stance. For instance, the formation of Indo-Pacific QUAD was perceived more or less likely to be a containment policy for China. However, in case of I2U2, it appears to be more unifying in terms of economic cooperation.
In any event, if the four countries put their focus entirely on the six identified dimensions, the alliance could succeed in myriad ways.  Thus, it is necessary to note that, I2U2 seems to have a plethora of potential, with an increased ratio of rewarding outcomes.  For instance, the UAE is luring start-ups, and is prepared to invest large sums of money. In contrast, the United States has immense capabilities in every imaginable domain; India has enormous human resources; and Israel has advanced technology in myriad fields. But, the stakes lie with UAE and Israel, being the key beneficiaries, to uphold the interests of the US and India and justify the continuation of this partnership.
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Today, the global economy is being put to the test. The list of challenges includes the special military operation in Ukraine, large-scale anti-Russian sanctions, an aggravated food crisis, disruptions in global supply chains, and globally rising inflation. Changes have not spared Kazakhstan, a country forced to seek out its place amid the new, constantly changing conditions of the global economy. To understand how deeply the country is integrated into the global economy, it is worth taking a look at Kazakhstan’s foreign trade in 2021. On the one hand, data suggests that its foreign trade is distributed fairly evenly among the three major regions, namely Europe (31%), Asia (32.6%) and the CIS (32.7%). On the other hand, the situation would be very different when the structure of exports and imports is analyzed. Almost 80% of goods are exported from Kazakhstan to nations outside the former Soviet Union—that is, to Europe and Asia. At the same time, about 50% of imports come from the former Soviet republics—primarily, Russia—while another 20% of imports comes from China. In fact, Kazakhstan sells minerals to global markets, and—with the currency earned—the country buys consumer goods, electronics, machinery, equipment, food and building materials from its nearest neighbors. In other words, such imports feature everything necessary for life. This model appeared more than 20 years ago to become the basis of the “Kazakhstani economic miracle”, turning the nation into the second economy of the post-Soviet space. Within this model, the drivers of economic growth are exports of minerals and services, which redistribute imports and financial flows, and create the bulk of jobs in the formal and informal sectors of the economy.
Over the past 10 years, Russia’s share of Kazakhstan’s foreign trade has steadily been increasing, while that of the EU has been declining. In 2011, Russia and the European Union accounted for 18.4% and 40.8% respectively. By 2021, the share of Russia rose to 24.2%, while the same indicator for the EU shrank to 29.6%. Today, Russia emerges as Kazakhstan’s key trade partner. Thus, it accounts for more than 40% of Kazakhstan’s imports. In 2021, more than 70% of timber and forest products, pulp and paper products, metals and goods from them, more than half of building materials and food products, more than 40% of chemical products, and a quarter of the machinery, equipment and vehicles imported into Kazakhstan came from Russia.
Under these conditions, Kazakhstan’s main interest is to maintain and diversify exports to an extent possible, as well as to secure sustained imports of food and key consumer goods.
Let’s take a closer look at Kazakhstan’s exports. Minerals, primarily crude oil, form the basis of exports. According to the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, oil exports from the Republic in 2021 amounted to 67.6 million tons. Almost 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil is exported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The consortium connects Kazakhstan’s fields with the port in Novorossiysk, from where oil is shipped to tankers for delivery to consumers in Europe, the Middle East, as well as South and East Asia. In 2021, the pipeline carried 53.1 million tonnes of oil from Kazakhstan’s largest field, Tengiz (26.6 million tonnes), as well as from Kashagan (15.7 million tonnes) and Karachaganak (10.3 million tonnes).
Kazakhstan is one of the five largest oil suppliers to Europe. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s oil is mainly shipped to southern European countries—namely, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In the first half of 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s exports to Europe rose to $18.8 billion, as compared with only $11.6 billion over the same period last year.
Kazakhstani oil is also transported through Transneft’s pipeline system, being mixed with Russian oil, for loading on tankers in Novorossiysk and the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. According to the Central Dispatch Center of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Russian Ministry of Energy, the volume of Kazakh oil shipped in 2021 in Novorossiysk amounted for 7.1 million tons, and in Ust-Luga 5.9 million tons respectively.
Another export route for Kazakh oil is deliveries by tankers from the port of Aktau (the design capacity is 11.6 mln tons a year, but in fact much less is exported) to Baku, and then pumping raw materials through the Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey and subsequent delivery by tankers to buying customers. Kazakhstan also supplies oil to China. Transportation is possible through the Atasu – Alashankou main oil pipeline with a capacity of 20 mln tons a year. According to KazMunayGas, the supplies through it amounted to 12 million tons in 2021, of which 10 million tons were transported under the equivalent circuit, when Russia supplies oil to Pavlodar refinery in Kazakhstan, and the Kazakh side sends the same amount of oil to China.
Kazakhstan is trying to find alternative routes for oil exports through Azerbaijan and Russia amid numerous CPC disruptions in 2022. On July 7, 2022, a meeting on the development of transport and transit capacity of the country was held under the chairmanship of President of Kazakhstan Tokayev. The meeting was attended by the leadership of the government, heads of relevant ministries and agencies, as well as national companies. President Tokayev said it was necessary to take a set of measures to ensure safe and uninterrupted exports of Kazakhstani products. At the same time, the country’s leader called the diversification of oil supplies the most important task. Moreover, the Trans-Caspian Route is a priority. KazMunayGas was instructed to work out the best option for its implementation, including the possible involvement of investors in the Tengiz project. While the government of Kazakhstan was tasked to take measures together with the Kazakhstani investment holding Samruk-Kazyna to increase the capacity of the Atyrau – Kenkiyak and Kenkiyak – Kumkol oil pipelines to expand supplies in the eastern direction.
On August 24, 2022, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Azerbaijan to meet with President Ilham Aliyev. The meeting took place against the background of negotiations of the Kazakh state oil company KazMunayGas with the trading arm of the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR on the sale of additional 1.5 million tons of Kazakhstani oil through the pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan (port in Turkey) and 3.5 million tons through the pipeline to Supsa (port in Georgia). This agreement will soon be signed.
It is obvious that it will not be possible to significantly increase the volume of oil transportation in other directions in the short term, on account of the limited capacity that the existing infrastructure has. The port infrastructure of Aktau and the neighboring port of Kuryk on the Caspian Sea would need to be reconstructed to transport such a volume of oil. Nevertheless, a strategic decision was made to gradually reduce shipments through the CPC and increase oil exports using infrastructure in other ways. Besides, it becomes clear that there is a need to increase the potential of non-commodity exports, which can compensate, at least partially, for the losses from the unstable operation of the consortium.
On the other hand, a threat to stable economic growth lies in the severe restrictions that international sanctions against Russia and reciprocal restrictions from the Russian side pose to Kazakhstan’s most important source of imports.
The military operation in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions imposed since the beginning of the year have led to disruptions in supply chains, exacerbating the global food crisis. Worldwide, food prices are skyrocketing. Climate change is no less of a threat to food security—heat wave and prolonged drought in Europe and China, floods in Pakistan.
The external environment has a rather grave impact on Kazakhstan’s economy. Alongside difficulties with exports, the country is experiencing problems with the purchase of basic goods, primarily food. One of the main problems is the global food crisis, followed by global price increases and shortages of goods. This summer, the deficit of some, such as sugar, has been notable. Export restrictions on sugar, wheat, flour, sunflower, large and small cattle, which were imposed in the spring and summer of 2022, are only effective in the short term. A systemic solution to food security in Kazakhstan requires comprehensive development of the country’s agro-industrial complex and its productivity. However, dependence on supplies of seeds and mineral fertilizers from Russia, which accounts for 80% of all imports of these products, stands in the way of transformation of agriculture in Kazakhstan.
After Russia imposed a temporary ban on the export of crops from March 15, 2022, the sowing campaign in Kazakhstan was jeopardized, as seeds were needed by Kazakhstani farmers for variety renewal and variety change. Only after the problem was raised at the level of deputy prime ministers in early April 2022 did Russia lift the temporary ban on exports of wheat, rye, barley, and corn seeds to the EAEU countries.
The fact that Russia imposed quotas on the export of mineral fertilizers, and later suspended their shipment for export due to logistical problems in the first half of 2022, also had a negative impact on agriculture in Kazakhstan. At an expanded government meeting held on July 14, 2022, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev pointed to the critical dependence on imported mineral fertilizers, noting that the country needs to engage in the production of phosphate and potash fertilizers. This will reduce their import from abroad, primarily from Russia.
The key economic contradiction between Russia and Kazakhstan is that Moscow wants to use the EAEU in general and Kazakhstan in particular to expand parallel imports and financial transactions amid international sanctions. At the same time, Nur-Sultan is not interested in expanding re-exports of sanctioned goods and equipment to Russia, for fear of secondary sanctions. It is more important for the country to maintain the existing volume of purchases of Russian goods and food, as well as to establish stable channels of supply of minerals to global markets.
***
For now and in the short term, Kazakhstan will have to tackle several challenges at once. First, there is the instability of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium as a key export channel, technological disruptions in its operation, real problems with the safe navigation in the Black Sea, as well as the planned increase of the Turkish side fees for passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles from October 7, 2022. Second, restrictions on exports of grain crops, mineral fertilizers, fuel, and some goods imposed by Russia and other countries will continue to push the prices up. Third, problems with payment for imports from Russia cannot be ruled out. Finally, the country is wanting large-scale investments to see the reconstruction and expansion of transport and logistics infrastructure, necessary to diversify its exports and increase transit facilities. All this will occur against the backdrop of the political transition, which should end with an early election of the president of Kazakhstan in autumn 2022 and the parliament of the country (the Majilis) in mid-2023. In a situation when the events of January 2022 are still strong in people’s minds and the decline in economic growth and living standards is acutely felt, the opportunities for successful implementation of the outlined plans are highly questionable.
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